Posted on 29. June 2015
David Cameron has been returned as prime minister in the UK general elections – not with a landslide victory but with a seat gain sufficient for the Tories to form a single party government. A central electoral pledge of Cameron was his promise to hold an in-or-out referendum on the UK’s EU membership, which he has made a central part of the Queen’s speech outlining the agenda of the new government. It is now crystal-clear that the referendum will be held before the end of 2017 and many people are speculating about the possible outcome of such a referendum. I want to share my perspective here as a political scientist, who studies electoral processes. My aim is not to ‘predict’ the referendum outcome.