What will drive the outcome of the UK’s EU referendum?

Posted on 29. June 2015

by Christopher Wratil

Christopher WratilDavid Cameron has been returned as prime minister in the UK general elections – not with a landslide victory but with a seat gain sufficient for the Tories to form a single party government. A central electoral pledge of Cameron was his promise to hold an in-or-out referendum on the UK’s EU membership, which he has made a central part of the Queen’s speech outlining the agenda of the new government. It is now crystal-clear that the referendum will be held before the end of 2017 and many people are speculating about the possible outcome of such a referendum. I want to share my perspective here as a political scientist, who studies electoral processes. My aim is not to ‘predict’ the referendum outcome.